LAGOS— National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, is set to roll out new figures on Nigeria’s economic fundamentals this week, just as its boss, the Statistician General of the Federation, Dr. Yemi Kale, bows out of the office he has held for five years.
Important fundamentals to be thrown up include second quarter 2016 (Q2’16) statistics on Unemployment/Underemployment; Foreign Trade; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Capital Importation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). NBS would also release the July 2016 Consumer Price Index and Inflation, as well as July 2016 PMS/Petrol Price statistics.
Economy analysts’ consensus forecasts on the fundamentals, last weekend, was decidedly bearish, pointing to continued weakening of the economy and they do not expect any positive surprise, especially on GDP and inflation.
On GDP expectations, analysts at Afrinvest West Africa, a Lagos-based investment house, said, weekend, that they expected a real contraction between -1.5 per cent and – 2.0 per cent in Q2:2016 GDP. They based their expectation on constrained oil production, a key metric in estimating oil sector GDP, due to activities of militants in the Niger Delta which forced down production levels to below 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the quarter, about 10 per cent short of 2.1mbpd produced in Q2:2015.
They also linked the expected GDP decline to further weakness in growth of the services sector, which includes trade and financial services, on account of the exchange rate shortages which peaked during the period as well as the pressure on consumer disposable income.
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